تحلیل تبعات محیط‌زیستی توسعه شهر سردرود و الحاق آن به مادرشهر تبریز با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری

توسعه‌ی شهری فرآیندی اجتناب‌ناپذیر و ناشی از عوامل متعددی می‌باشد که پیامد آن به وجود آمدن بسیاری از مشکلات و تغییرات زیست‌محیطی و اقتصادی اجتماعی در مقیاس‌های مختلف به‌ویژه در کشورهای در حال توسعه شده است. جهان معاصر عرصه تحولات شگرف و پویایی شتابنده است؛ لذا تنها رویکرد و سیاستی که احتمال کسب موفقیت‌های بیشتر در این محیط سرشار از تغییر و بی‌ثباتی را فرآهم می‌آورد، تلاش برای معماری آینده است. در مقایسه با شیوه‌های سنتی برنامه‌ریزی که برنامه‌ریز از شرایط حال آغاز کرده و به درون آینده می‌رود؛ در نگاه نو به برنامه‌ریزی، برنامه‌ریز ابتدا با افق آینده می‌رود و با حضور در افق آینده و دیده‌بانی حال و گذشته مسیرهای مشخص برای معماری توسعه را تعیین و تدقیق می‌کند. این مطالعه با هدف شناسایی عوامل کلیدی تاثیرگذار بر رشد و توسعه شهر سردرود در جهت الحاق به مادرشهر تبریز و تدوین سناریوهای ممکن و شناسایی سناریوهای مطلوب تدوین شده است و در مراحل بعدی با تهیه پرسشنامه و ارائه آن به کارشناسان، شاخص‌های موثر بر روند الحاق شهر سردرود به مادرشهر تبریز بدست آمد. با بررسی نتایج پرسشنامه‌ها، 59 متغیر موثر شناسایی و با به‌کارگیری نرم‌افزار micmac، 13 عامل کلیدی استخراج شد؛ و در ادامه جهت تدوین سناریوهای ممکن و شناسایی سناریوهای مطلوب، وارد نرم‌افزار scenariowizard گردیدند. در نهایت، سه سناریو قوی، 13 سناریوی باورکردنی و 9999 سناریوی ضعیف بدست ‌آمد؛ که سناریوهای ضعیف از حیطه برنامه‌ریزی خارج می‌باشند و صرفاً جنبه آماری دارند. برای سناریوهای باورکردنی، 169 وضعیت محتمل مشخص گردید؛ که از این بین، تنها 68 وضعیت حالتی مطلوب دارند و وضعیت‌های نامطلوب با 101 وضعیت، سیطره بیشتری داشته و این امر آینده مطلوبی را برای سیستم متصور نمی‌شوند. حتی در صورت وقوع سناریوهای مطلوب، باز هم سیستم با آینده‌ای کاملاً مطلوب رو به رو نخواهد بود.

Analysis of the environmental consequences of urban development of Sardrood and its annexation into the Tabriz metropolis (Foresight approach)

Introduction At present, the growth of the urban population of the world is faster than the world’s largest, with more than half of the population living in urban areas. This fact has created many environmental and socioeconomic problems on a large scale, especially in developing countries. Therefore, the high urbanization rate and the lack of urban infrastructure on the one hand, and the reduction of land with environmentally valuable land in the cities, on the other hand, reveals the need for a review of the process of change and the prediction of the expansion of cities in the coming years. Foresight science is an interdisciplinary knowledge that, in addition to analysing the trends of the past, has been able to discover, invent, and evaluate possible, probable and desirable future, and transformed the dispersed and inconsistent literature on planning for the future into scientifically codified with solid principles. In this regard, environmental futures research is a process of systematic and accountable effort to address the longterm future with the aim of identifying strategic research areas and the emergence of inclusive environmental technologies, which, while embracing the economic and social benefits of citizens, also minimize the potential for potential losses. Urban environment and provide favourable environmental scenarios, taking into account sustainable development patterns.  This research has been designed with the aim of identifying the development indicators of the city of Sardrood including social, economic and environmental dimensions and defining the directions of the city development. During this process, the environmental consequences of its development will be explored with the futureoriented and futuristic approach in the event of its accession to the metropolis of Tabriz. Methods and material  This research is based on the objective, applied and descriptiveanalytical method. Initially, the required data and indices were prepared using library questionnaires and social, economic and environmental indicators. Then, in the MICMAC software designed for structural analysis, the impact of the indicators produced on each other and on the growth and development of the city was studied. Then, with the Scenario wizard software, the scenarios needed for key factors and driving force behind the development of the city were presented. Results and Discussion The initial variables affecting the future of the system were collected and analyzed using the Delphi technique, and finally, 59 variables were extracted in different dimensions. In order to analyze the effective variables, the structural analysis method was used using MICMAC software and the experts. The distribution of variables indicates that the system is unstable. The direct and indirect effects of variables on each other and on the future of the system were examined by experts and finally, 13 effective factors were obtained from a total of 59 primary factors. In this study, &the type of attitude in the annexation of the city of Sardrood to the metropolis of Tabriz& was identified as the most influential factor. In the final part of the study, a scenario was performed and for each of the key factors, the probable situations were identified. A total of 53 statuses were compiled and to examine the effect of each of the probable situations on other situations, the questionnaires were provided to the experts and entered into the scenario software for analysis of the results. Finally, there were three strong, more likely to occur scenarios, 9,999 poor scenarios, and 13 reasonable and believable scenarios by considering incredible scenarios, there are 169 statuses for them, of which only 24 are highly desirable and 44 are in a desirable process and the rest of the state is static, undesirable, or critical, which does not represent a desirable future for the future of the system.   Conclusion This research was carried out with the aim of evaluating the environmental consequences of the development of the city of Sardasht and its annexation to Tabriz’s capital city. In the first step, by using the questionnaire tool, 59 factors were identified and evaluated by the experts on the future of the system in various dimensions and entered into the software to determine the key factors. Since the system software was identified as unstable, variables were classified into five general categories, which eventually identified 13 indicators out of 59 indicators as the main factors. In the following, 53 potential scenarios were designed for key factors that indicate the future of key factors. Then, to assess the impact and scenarios of these situations, they were compared through a questionnaire and their results were analyzed using the Wizard scenario software. The software provided 9,999 weak, 13 credible scenarios, and three strong scenarios. For credible scenarios, the status of the future of the ruling system is 169, of which 68 are favorable and 101 are unfavorable. Consequently, even in the case of favorable scenarios, the optimal future for the system is not expected.