شناسایی الگو های غیر فضایی تغییرات سه ساعته دما، دمای شبانه و دمای روزانه ایستگاه سینوپتیک تبریز در مقیاس فصلی و سالانه

در این پژوهش به منظور تعیین روند و شدت تغییرات دما، آماره سینوپ های سه ساعته در طول روز و شب در مقیاس فصلی و سالانه برای ایستگاه سینوپتیک تبریز(با 1957-68 برداشت داده) طی دوره آماری (1951-2017) استخراج و مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. سری های زمانی دما برای هرکدام از سینوپ ها در مقیاس فصلی و سالانه تهیه گردید. سپس جهت تهیه سری های زمانی دمای شبانه و روزانه داده های سه ساعته دما(سینوپ ها) به دو گروه دمای شبانه (شامل میانگین دمای سینوپ های 00:00 ، 03:00 ، 18:00 و 21:00) و دمای روزانه(شامل میانگین دمای سینوپ های 06:00 ، 09:00 ، 12:00 و 15:00) تبدیل شدند. جهت شناسایی روند و معنی داری روند تغییرات از روش تحلیل ناپارامتریک منکندال و نیز برای تعیین شیب خط روند هرکدام از این واحد های زمانی از آزمون تخمینگر شیب سن استفاده شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد که در بین تمامی سینوپ های مورد بررسی سینوپ 03:00(ساعت 06:30 به وقت محلی) دارای تغییرات شدید تری نسبت به سایر سینوپ ها است که در فصل تابستان دارای افزایش 0.66 درجه سانتیگرادی دما در هر دهه می باشد. بیشترین تغییرات سالانه نیز مربوط سینوپ 00:00 (افزایش 0.47 درجه سانتیگراد در هر دهه) است. بررسی تغییرات فصلی دمای شبانه و روزانه نیز نشان دهنده آن است که بیشترین تغییرات دمای شبانه مربوط به فصل تابستان (افزایش 0.62 درجه سانتی گراد در هر دهه) و بیشترین تغییرات دمای روزانه نیز مربوط به فصل بهار و تابستان(افزایش 0.3 درجه سانتی گراد در هر دهه) است.

Identification of non-spatial patterns of three-hour variations of daily and nightly temperatures of the synoptic station of Tabriz on seasonal and annual scales

IntroductionThe global warming of the Earth due greenhouse gases diffusion (GHGs) is undeniable now; over the past century, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased significantly and caused an increase in global temperature of 0.44 ° C compared to Preindustrial era. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) shows that there is a positive correlation between the amount of CO2 and global temperature rise. Today, climate change has attracted many scientists and researchers. The reason for this is the huge impact this phenomenon has on life on Earth. Potentially, climate change can endanger drinking water supplies, food production, and sustainable development in many parts of the world, For this reason, the International Committee of Climate Change (IPCC) calls for studies on climate change at the regional and local scale. Studies have shown that the mean temperature of the Earth has increased by about 0.18 ± 0.74 °C during the twentieth century And an increase in the temperature of the 21st century is estimated to be 1.8 to 4 degrees centigrade. materials and methodsIn this study, the threehour temperature data of the synoptic station of Tabriz for the statistical period of 67 years (20171951) was prepared. Using Matlab’s coding, seasonal and annual time series were prepared for each synoptic. Then, in order to provide the seasonal and annual time SYNOPs for the daily and night temperatures, the data are divided into two groups of nightly temperatures (including mean SYNOPs temperatures from 00:00, 03:00, 18:00 and 21:00) and daily temperature (including average SYNOPs temperatures at 06:00, 09:00, 12:00 and 15:00). Discussion and resultsTemperature is one of the most important elements in climatic zonation and classification, and it plays an important role in the distribution of other climatic elements. Accordingly, fluctuations and temperature changes are very important. In recent decades, the applied results of temperature analysis have led to a study of its longrun fluctuations, especially in the global arena. Therefore, in this study, the temperature fluctuations of three hours (SYNOPs), night temperature and daily temperature of the synoptic station of Tabriz during the statistical period of 19512017 and the seasonal and annual time scale were studied.The results of the study show that SYNOPs, (3:00 pm local time), have more severe changes than other SYNOPs, which in summer increases at 0/66 °C per decade. Most annual changes are related to SYNOP 00:00 (an increase of 0.47 °C). Seasonal variations in daily and nightly temperatures also indicate that the highest changes in the night temperature were observed in summer (an increase of 0/62 °C), and the highest daily temperature changes were observed in spring and summer (an increase of 0.3 °C) Is.the findings of this study are largely consistent with the findings of other studies in the study area. For example, Dinpajoh et al. (1394) obtained the same results by analyzing the process of weather parameters in Tabriz, indicating an increase in the minimum, maximum and average temperature in Tabriz. The results of the study, Sari Sarraf et al. (1394), also show that in the Urmia Lake basin, the minimum, maximum and average temperature has experienced an increasing trend in the annual and seasonal scale. Jahanbakhsh Asl et al. (1396) also studied the trend of variations in the average monthly coldyear average temperature in the northwest of Iran, with the result that the average minimum temperature in most parts of the northwest is increasing. Therefore, the results of this research and previous studies indicate that the temperature in the study area is increasing. The important thing about this research and its difference with previous studies is the use and application of temperature data. So, using daily temperature data (SYNOPs), the temperature changes were dealt with, while in other studies, the average temperature or minimum and maximum temperature parameters were used, so the results of this study could be information It will provide a more accurate description of the process of temperature variation in the Tabriz Synoptic Station.ConclusionAccording to the results, it can be said that the signs of climate change in Tabriz city, especially in terms of temperature, are visible. Considering the role of temperature in increasing evapotranspiration and urban energy consumption, over the next decade, there should be solutions to better manage water and energy resources, especially heat energy during the warm season.